When our President announced the lock-down, cynical me actually fell for it. I was convinced he took strong and decisive action at the right time and I admired his courage. The graphs reflected a clear 'knee', indicating that his actions had made an immediate impact on the spread of the virus.
He immediately surrounded himself with a team of scientists and regularly gave the nation feedback.. “What more could one ask for?” I thought.
The alarm-bells started ringing when Minister Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, the minister tasked to oversee government’s response to the pandemic, started fixating on matters such as the number of people who may attend funerals. while equally important matters such as feeding the poor, were getting very little attention.
I nearly fell off my chair when I heard official announcements from ministers about the type of shoes one may purchase and wear during the lockdown while still very little was said and done about feeding many thousands of children who were going hungry.
By now government was reminding us constantly that all their decisions were supported by the latest scientific data and facts. I have a basic understanding of science, but I simply could not see the connection between their actions and science.
At first I thought this thing may simply be too complicated for me to understand but as one ridiculous utterance followed another, I started realizing that science did not feature much in our government's response to Covid-19.
Intrigued by the huge discrepancy between governments claims and their actions, I started digging for the truth. Much is still a mystery, but by connecting the dots, I think I have figured out what is going on.
This is my theory...
Government made a number of mistakes early on and in true ANC style, nobody took responsibility and nobody rolled up their sleeves to fix it.
The first mistake - not taking advice from the specialists
If you task scientists to formulate a plan, be sure to never break these three cardinal rules:
Do not tamper with any part of the plan. You have no idea what impact changes may have on the overall performance and success of the plan.
Once the plan is running, do not tamper with it. Let the scientists make the changes. It takes great skill to formulate changes to a plan that only targets the weaknesses without unintentionally also impacting on the good parts of the plan.
Do not add anything to the plan without first consulting with the scientists. One can easily destroy a perfect plan by carelessly adding to it.
After a number of ugly public spats between members of the government command team and some of the scientists, it became apparent that all was not well in paradise. As I suspected, the politicians were way to “clever” for the scientists and they didn’t quite see the need for these nerds to be telling them what to say and do.
I will now demonstrate by way of examples how the governent team’s tampering with and their breaking of the three cardinal rules, led to the destruction of what started out as a very scientific approach that soon deteriorated into yet another political mess.
Rule no 1 states that one should not tamper with the plan.
The scientists recommended the banning of all large gatherings and strict enforcement of social distancing.
Along came the politicians...
Funeral gathering of up to fifty people were immediately allowed, this in light of the fact that one of the first outbreaks of Covid-19 in South Africa occurred at a funeral.
Taxi bosses made ugly noises when they discovered that they were not making as much money as they used to because of social distancing. Almost immediately the rules were relaxed.
Politicians, driven by fear and greed, rather than by science, tampered with simple but effective solutions and effectively rendered them worthless.
Rule no 2 states, don’t interfere with a plan once it is in motion.
The scientists recommended a lockdown period of three weeks, enough time for medical facilities to prepare for the anticipated influx of sick people needing medical care.
This sounds like a solid scientific response, but along came the politicians.
After a short while the politicians started fixating on the numbers instead of sticking to the plan. By now they were obsessively trying to keep the numbers down at all costs, and I mean at all costs. Despite the masses going hungry and the economy failing, the politicians extended the lockdown twice while almost all of the specially prepared Covid-19 medical treatment centers were standing completely empty.
A manageable but relatively high rate of new Covid-19 infections is an important element in the fight against the virus. The flatter the curve, the wider it becomes. In simple terms, the lower the rate of new infections, the longer it lasts. If the rate of new infections is so low that the medical facilities are not being utilized, the plan falls apart. A herd that doesn’t get sick, don’t attain immunity whilst at the same time the impact of the virus is stretched over a vastly longer period of time.
The politicians irrational change of strategy midway through the lockdown, had the effect of completely changing the intended outcome of the plan. Instead of the lockdown protecting us from the virus, Covid-19 is now set to be around for much longer than anticipated, causing so much more damage to our economy.
Rule no 3 - Do not add anything to a plan
The scientists advised that restaurants and taverns should be closed.
The politicians decided to add to this a ban of cigarettes sales as well.
Of course there is clear evidence that cigarette smoke causes cancer but this has absolutely nothing to do with the plan and in no way improves its chances of success.
Ironically, illicit cigarette sales soared during the lockdown, putting millions of tax-free Rands directly into the pockets of criminals.
The cigarette ban did not prevent a single Covid-19 death, but denied government billions in tax revenue. Where is the science in all of this?
Another example of point 3 was when the scientists recommended that people be allowed to exercise outdoors. You guessed it, along came the politicians...
Some clever dick unilaterally added 'only between 6 and 9'. A good plan suddenly became a dangerous threat because of the addition of one seemingly minor detail that forced exercise starved people to converge on public spaces all at the same time.
The second mistake - opportunistic politicians
Soon after the initial shock of the pandemic and the lockdown dawned upon us, opportunistic politicians started scheming about ways to derive benefit from this disaster. In KZN, some politicians blatantly stole food parcels from hungry children while others opted for a much more subtle approach.
Clowns such as Min Bheki Cele saw the lockdown as an opportunity to take action against his pet hate, alcohol abuse. Restrictions on the sale of alcohol during a lockdown in SA may even have merit but we live in a Constitutional Democracy. Our liberty and civil rights are sacred. Government may not use disasters to unilaterally take away our rights to serve their own agendas.
Who knows what drives Minister Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma's firm stance on the banning of cigarettes during lockdown. Are the Mazotti's involved or is she also taking this opportunity to assert herself in ridding SA of all it's evils. Again, we live in a Constitutional Democracy and our government's power to protect us, even from ourselves, is defined and not without limits.
Here comes the scary part.
Recently, old Zumaites such as the mayor of Ekurhuleni, Cllr Mzwandile Masina, started spewing his radical economical transformation bs again, saying the disastrous economical impact of the lockdown created perfect conditions for transformation of the economy. I did not take much notice until I watched an interview with our President, in which he said the exact same thing!
He stated in the interview that our economy is in desperate need of transformation as it is inherently unfair and racist. (I don't fully understand this but I take his word for it).
He also stated that the current situation may be the perfect opportunity for transformation of the economy.
I do not have further details at this time so I am going to attempt to nail down what he may be getting at.
Perhaps our President believes that black entrepreneurs will create businesses in the void that was left by all the failed white-owned enterprises, Lets hope this is not what he is thinking, otherwise his sincerity and rhe motives behind him perpetually extending the lockdown, is immediately in the spotlight.
Let's say my suspicions are correct and our government is deliberately driving our economy into the ground in order to create conditions favourable for the establishment of new black owned businesses, lets then consider the following.
Most start-up businesses, whether black or white owned, are not viable and the vast majority of them will fail. One has to ask, how long will it take for the void to be filled with viable upstart businesses that regularly pay tax and create sustainable jobs?
Also, why don’t these new upstarts exist already, considering that they have had an unfair advantage through BBBEE for some time now? Remember, our government is flat broke. They have borrowed to support the lockdown and all those failed white-owned enterprises will no longer be paying tax. Is our government naive enough to believe that by wiping out the competition that they are creating fertile conditions for the establishment of sustainable and robust businesses that will contribute to the economy.
I sincerely hope they are not that stupid.
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